Well, here it is the night before we start the game. It sounds so anti-climatic to call it a game. A contest sounds better, but still doesn't hit it right. I've played games and been in contests and none of them have consumed my thoughts and made me nervous like this. Finally, my chance to prove that I can win this. A chance for all those hours bragging that I could do it better, that I could be the one, to prove I was right. And even now, I believe I am right. I will win. I believe that.

I'll even tell you how, because it is all very methodical. When I do mazes, I always start at the goal and work my way back. I know it doesn't make it any easier but when sizing any challenge up I always like to start with where I want to be. To see how can I get there. I believe on keeping the goal firmly in my sites. So, how am I going to do it? I'll tell you, because when I win I want to be able to prove that it was all according to plan.

We're talking about a game of perceptions. So it's all about knowing everyone's perception and playing that correctly. When it comes down to the final 3 you want the other two people to both believe that they can beat you in front of the council. You want them to see you as someone they absolutely want to go up against, yet not have them hate you so much they refuse to give you the chance to win. You want them to believe that despite the fact that the council is going to pick you. You have to make sure as those council members go that they respect you, do not hate you, and believe you have truly outplayed them without making them hate you. In other words, you have to be likable to everyone but the 2 that you are bringing with you. Their perceptions you have to twist to not liking you, but believing they need you. I can make that happen.

But you need to make it to that final three. The real tricky time is after the merge. There are no more true tribal politics, it's all one on one. The trick is to have two alliances set up. Sketchy ones where you're the swing vote. Never lie, but deceptive is OK. Deceptive can be respected. Lying and breaking promises will get you hated though. Always make sure that if you can't force the vote, it's someone else getting voted for. Remember it's people's perceptions, and not reality that matters. Use those perceptions. Remember that people that have targets are the most manipulatable. They need someone. Needy people make good short term allies. That should get me where I need to be.

Before the merge it's easy. It's all about the tribe. Loners will go. Irritating people will go. Make the tribe cohesive. Be friendly. Keep the team spirit up. After all, a stronger tribe going into the merge has a better chance. Lay the foundations for multiple alliances.

But the big key, be likable. Be likable immediately. Find common ground quickly. People, despite what they want to think, make decisions based on emotion. If they like you they will rationalize and find a way to not vote you off. It's like a job interview, most of the time it's the resume that gets you in the door, but if you set up a rapport with the interviewer, you're in despite everything else. Same goes on the island. Be liked and have friends, and you can win. How many people have you seen flamed because they broke trust, or friendship, or whatever else? It's a game! It's to be expected! Yet it ticks people off because that's a big part of how they rationalize and therefore vote.

So that's it. Of course it will be fluid, but the trick is to be likable, keep aware of the perceptions, and use them.

Now that I have all of that out, maybe I can get some sleep.

Oh yeah, and I have a few ideas on how to manage all of this that haven't been seen on Survivor before. Trust me, with me there, it's a completely new game. <big smile>

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